Now, under the management of former COO Hugh Grant -- elected president and CEO five-and-a-half nervous months after the departure of Hendrik A. Verfaillie last December -- and finally independent of Pharmacia, St. Louis-based Monsanto is articulating a clear, new vision of itself for the future. Its emphasis will be on seeds rather than chemicals. So far, the new plan is working, and the stock market likes it.

As Monsanto reports quarterly earnings today, its stock price hovering just below a 52-week high of $23.36, analysts are expecting further improvement and will be watching carefully for evidence that the "new" Monsanto is indeed on track.

A major immediate question is, can the profits from Monsanto's genetically-modified (GM) crops grow fast enough to replace the declining earnings from the company’s former staple, the bestselling herbicide Roundup?

Monsanto’s stock runup followed a severe slump last summer, when the stock shed nearly 60 percent of its value between April and August, concurrent with a series of earnings and public relations reverses.

This year a new picture has emerged, and analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter ended June 30 is $1.01 per share, up 1 cent from the year-earlier quarter.

The average EPS estimate for the year is $1.34 per share, according to Yahoo.com and Zacks.com, up 15 cents from last year. Revenue estimates range from $4.6 to $4.8 billion for 2003, little changed from $4.67 billion in 2002.

Analysts' recommendations, however, vary widely: of eight covering brokers surveyed by Yahoo.com, one recommends Monsanto as a strong buy, four say it’s a hold, and three urge stockholders to sell.

Dubious analysts say the stock is overvalued. It trades at a price-earnings ratio of 52, compared with 21 for Syngenta AG and 19 for Bayer AG, two of its largest competitors.

These analysts also note that Monsanto’s largest product, Roundup herbicide, went off-patent in the United States, the last region in which it was still protected, in October of 2000, and since then the company has faced “ferocious price competition,” according to a Bear Stearns report.

A June Merrill Lynch report notes that Monsanto’s share of the U.S. market for glyphosate, the primary ingredient in Roundup, has fallen from 93.2 percent in 1999 to 77.3 percent in 2002 -- a 17 percent drop -- and is expected to fall further in 2003.

Another big question: In March, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Monsanto was under investigation for possibly using marketing techniques for its herbicides that violated U.S. antitrust law.

According to Banc of America analysts, litigation could prove the most material threat to Monsanto’s future performance. There's also a breach-of-contract suit from former acquisition target Delta & Pine Land Co.

The company’s vision calls for expansion of the “seeds and traits” wing of the business. Monsanto’s seed business consists primarily of corn, under the DeKalb brand, Asgrow brand soybeans, and cotton, as well as designing genetically engineered seeds with a variety of traits, including Roundup Ready crops which are resistant to the company’s herbicide.

In Monsanto's 2002 annual report issued this spring, then-Chairman, President, and CEO Frank V. AtLee foresaw “Monsanto’s transformation from a company based on a strong chemistry portfolio and especially on Roundup herbicide, to a company based on seeds and biotechnology traits business.”

However, net sales in the seeds and genomics segment declined to $1.58 billion in 2002 from $1.7 billion in 2001, a drop the company attributed primarily to collection problems in Latin America.

Levels of public uncertainty about the safety of GM-crops add yet another challenge, some researchers have said.

Other Monsanto-watchers, however, are encouraged by better weather and improved market conditions in the farm sector this year.

This year almost has to better than last. In 2002 Monsanto endured anti-GM protests, lawsuits, and a lousy farm economy; its stock was punished by Wall Street; it changed accounting methods, company leadership, and its corporate mission.

Monsanto began as a traditional manufacturer of chemicals, but expanded into drugs, buying G. D. Searle in Skokie, and into agricultural products, becoming a leader in that area with its patent on the weed-killer Roundup. In 1997 the company spun off its traditional chemical business, which became Solutia Inc.

Sales of agricultural products grew steadily, from 40 percent of total volume in 1996 to 56 percent in 1999. As the company expanded into genetically modified crops, it acquired seed companies, notably DeKalb Genetics Corp., previously DeKalb AgResearch, to use as development and distribution channels.

In 2000 Monsanto merged with the drug-maker Pharmacia & UpJohn Inc., which took control of the Searle pharmaceutical operations, and the current Monsano Co. was incorporated as a subsidiary in October 2000.

The new Monsanto went public through an IPO in October of 2000, although the company remained a Pharmacia subsidiary for another year. The stock traded at between $25 and $40 per share until well into 2002. In May 2002, the company registered with the SEC up to $2 billion in new debt. In mid-June, the company announced that it was lowering earnings expectations because of the weak crop season and the uncertainties in the Latin American economy.

By August the stock had slid to less than $15 per share, from a three-month high of nearly $35 per share in early April. On August 13, Pharmacia distributed to its shareholders its controlling interest in Monsanto, and relinquished control of the company.

Since then, Monsanto's prospects, and its stock, have moved slowly upward, but experts believe the company’s future still hinges on the question of whether Monsanto can break away from its former dependence on herbicide sales, and fully develop the potential of its seed and genomics business.