WASHINGTON – There’s a reason why they call
politics “the art of the possible.”
On the Hill, legislators have been fighting for
months over how much of President Bush’s tax-cut plan
they will approve. But even after they settle on a final
figure, further tax cuts are possible.
Bush has been insisting on $726 billion in cuts,
while the House, in early April, approved up to $550,
and the Senate has rejected the idea of any cut higher
than $350 billion. A few in both houses continue to say
that any cut is irresponsible and will inflate the
deficit.
But whatever number gets picked at the end of all the
shouting will only be a guideline, not a legally binding
limit. Other tax cuts may be proposed in later bills,
and many on the Hill think the Republican congressional
leadership may try to restore some of the cuts they
agreed to do without.
“You may see one or two other tax items pass,” said
Republican Rep. Christopher Shays, from Connecticut’s
fourth district, last week.
According to Democrat Rosa DeLauro, “they are going
to try to slice it up, cut it up, get it into a proposal
where they can fit it all in.”
Some conservative observers say one of the best
outcomes for the White House would be approval of a
smaller tax number, like $350 billion, but one that
would include the administration’s politically divisive
proposal on dividends. Then other measures, like tax
credits for married couples, children, or small-business
owners, that are politically popular and more difficult
for congressional moderates to oppose, could be pushed
through in succeeding bills, they say.
Eric Engen of the conservative American Enterprise
Institute has been suggesting that possibility for a
while. After all, he said, “this is Washington D.C.”
The question is whether congressional Democrats would
allow further tax bills to pass. Democrats could always
filibuster in the Senate, but they’ve already been
criticized for overusing that tactic to block two of
President Bush’s judicial nominations.
And on a popular measure like tax cuts for small
businesses, Republicans may be able to muster the 60
votes needed to break a filibuster anyway.
Democrats, in turn, have expressed outrage that
Republicans may be strategizing to push through other
tax-cut proposals after main debate on the president’s
tax-cut plan. And they’ve proposed their own
alternatives.
On Tuesday Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle aired a
$152 billion tax cut plan, and House Democrats released
their own plan at a press conference Wednesday
afternoon.
Another scenario, Engen said, would be for Congress
to pass a large tax cut that would expire after just a
few years, allowing it to fall below the Senate’s $350
billion figure, which is a 10-year estimate. That would
leave some future Congress faced with the politically
unsavory choice of allowing the tax cuts to expire and
being blamed for raising taxes, or just extending the
cuts, ballooning the deficit.
A proposal along those lines has been offered by
Republican Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, who
recommended a dividend tax cut that would expire in
2006. Other members of the Senate Republican leadership,
including Olympia Snowe of Maine, have criticized the
plan, saying they fear it would look like a gimmick to
hide the true costs of the bill. Snowe, a moderate, has
proposed an alternative plan that would exempt up to
$1,000 of dividends from taxation.
Either way, the final figure on the upcoming budget
resolution bill may be only the beginning.